Since my last prediction worked out so well, I have decided I should make more. [Keep in mind that I’m totally making this stuff up: I wouldn’t bet the farm on any of it. I’m also not saying that I want this stuff to happen, just that I think it will.]
First, the most important thing in the whole universe, ever: the US presidential race. It’s no longer terribly controversial to predict that Obama is going to win, so I’ll have to go wackier.
Prediction 1: In the lead-up to the election, McCain will continue personal attacks on Obama. This will annoy voters and open up Obama’s lead. Obama will continue to do what he has been doing the whole time: “I don’t want to make personal attacks; I want to talk about the issues and have this good economic plan.”
Prediction 2: Obama wins with 55–60% of the vote. I’ll say 57% (a 14 point spread). I have no good sense of how that plays out in the electoral college. (At the moment, electoral-vote.com has 343-184 with 11 too close to call.)
Prediction 3: The Dow Jones will continue to slide down until late October, and will begin to rise slowly after that. Pundits will blame this on Obama’s pending victory, even though it’s just bargain hunters in the market. Either way, I will effectively be betting real money that this guy is right (about the market, not the lame money-saving tips). [Edit 10/12: and this guy.]
Prediction 4: As to the Canadian election, electionprediction.org is currently predicting another Conservative minority, which is probably where the smart money would go. I’m going to go crazy and predict a Liberal minority. No real reason other than 4 parties beating up on Harper might take its toll.
Let’s see how I do. Anybody got anything to add?
October 11th, 2008 at 2:24 am
Let’s hope for another borderline-psychotic response calling you a dilettante and suggesting you should either die or become a Republican.
(Also, 3+0 is 3, dammit. I checked the math with a calculator a number of times and it keeps coming up the same.)